Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-XSCH
Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 2005
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-XSCH
Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35647
YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:22Z
Reasoning: Round 1 standings and final tournament standings are independent. A player can finish top 20 overall without being top 10 after Round 1, and vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A