Pair #1580

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35647

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:22Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so a top 20 finish there has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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