Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-TB
Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2723303
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPRES-26-TB
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?
Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13540
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tampa Bay Lightning wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
112.30%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9400
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
+108.08%
PROFITABLE