Pair #1577

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35647

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:22Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament, so a top 20 finish there has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 in all four majors. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -89.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -94.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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