Pair #1572

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8042

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Billy Horschel makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6907

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Billy Horschel finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:54Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does imply making the cut but the top 10 market resolves YES only for top 10 finishes which already presuppose making the cut — however the question is whether top 10 implies make cut. Finishing top 10 does require making the cut, but the make cut market does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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