Pair #1568

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4868

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8042

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:54Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means the player made the cut and completed the tournament. Making the cut does not require finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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