Pair #1562

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6907

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25343

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:37Z

Reasoning: If Horschel finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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