Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BHOR
Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6907
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Billy Horschel finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BHOR
Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25343
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Billy Horschel finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:37Z
Reasoning: If Horschel finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A