Pair #1560

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BHOR

Will Billy Horschel win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 769237

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Billy Horschel wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BHOR

Valspar Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25343

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Billy Horschel finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:37Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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