KXNHL-26-TB
Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2723303
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800
KXNHLEAST-26-TB
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 323883
YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Tampa Bay must win the Eastern Conference Finals first. So winning the Stanley Cup logically necessitates winning the Eastern Conference. The reverse does not hold — winning the East does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-74.81%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1200
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-79.03%
BELOW HURDLE
Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:44:01Z