Pair #1546

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18194

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a golf major and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valspar are completely independent events. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -25.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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