Pair #1545

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47059

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 at the Valspar are entirely separate events at different tournaments. Neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -39.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -43.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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