Pair #1544

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3426

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Making the cut depends on cumulative score after Round 2, not Round 1 standing alone. Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut, and making the cut does not require a top 10 Round 1 score. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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