Pair #1542

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3426

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither event necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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