Pair #1541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Event A is about finishing top 10 in all 4 majors; Event B is about finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valspar (not a major). Completely unrelated tournaments and conditions. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -68.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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