Pair #1540

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47059

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Event A concerns the four golf majors; the Valspar Championship is not a major. Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors says nothing about the Valspar, and finishing top 10 at Valspar says nothing about the majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -87.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -91.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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