Pair #154

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-DEN

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2194921

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z

Reasoning: Having the 1st overall draft pick is typically associated with poor performance, not winning a championship, but neither event logically necessitates the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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