Pair #1539

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18194

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:30:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major means finishing top 10 in that major, but Event A requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors — winning one does not guarantee top 10 in the other three. And finishing top 10 in all 4 does not require winning any. No implication holds in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -0.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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