Pair #1537

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1920685

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the overall Valspar Championship does not require finishing top 10 in round 1 specifically — a player can recover from a poor first round and still win the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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