Pair #1535

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1920685

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:56Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not one of the four major tournaments listed in Event B. Winning the Valspar does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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