Pair #1532

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9023953

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in round 1 of the Valspar Championship, a separate tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9920
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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