Pair #153

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBA-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNBAWEST-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship?

Series: KXNBAWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1310279

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z

Reasoning: To win the NBA Finals, a Western Conference team must first win the Western Conference Championship. Winning the Finals logically necessitates having won the West. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference does not guarantee winning the Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -31.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -35.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:12:00Z

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