Pair #1528

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9023953

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means Koepka finishes top 10 at the Masters, but Event B requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning one does not guarantee top 10 finishes in the other three. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not mean he won the Masters. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 12.57% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9820
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +8.36% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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