Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BKOE
Will Brooks Koepka win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9023953
YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Brooks Koepka wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:56Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters means Koepka finishes top 10 at the Masters, but Event B requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning one does not guarantee top 10 finishes in the other three. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not mean he won the Masters. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
12.57%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9820
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
+8.36%
PROFITABLE