Pair #1526

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49684

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:36Z

Reasoning: A final top-5 finish in the tournament does not imply a top-10 finish in Round 1 specifically — a player can finish poorly in R1 and rally over subsequent rounds. And a top-10 R1 does not guarantee a top-5 overall finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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