Pair #1524

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49684

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:36Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. A top-5 finish there has no logical connection to winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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