Pair #1522

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49684

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:36Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. A top-5 finish there has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -61.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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