Pair #1521

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1920685

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49684

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship necessarily means finishing 1st, which is within the top 5. However, finishing top 5 does not imply winning. So the implication goes: winning → top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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