Pair #1517

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 50370

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:36Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so leading R1 there has no logical connection to winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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