Pair #1514

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 50370

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:36Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of the Valspar Championship (not a major) has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. These are entirely different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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