Pair #151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-DEN

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2194921

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl (could lose in playoffs), and winning the Super Bowl does not require winning the division (wild card teams can win the Super Bowl).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 52.80% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7700
Days to maturity: 225
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +48.52% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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