Pair #1509

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47059

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81666

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:12Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing between 11th and 20th satisfies top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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