Pair #1508

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81666

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:12Z

Reasoning: The Valspar is not a major. A top 20 there has no logical connection to winning a major, and winning a major does not imply anything about the Valspar result.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -56.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -60.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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