Pair #1507

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81666

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3426

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:29:12Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in a tournament, a player must have made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 20 overall if you were cut after Round 2). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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