Pair #150

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: Winning the AFC West division and holding the 1st overall draft pick are independent events with no logical necessity linking them. Division winners are typically good teams unlikely to have the 1st pick, but there is no logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 70.39% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7200
Days to maturity: 225
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +66.11% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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