Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?
Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426
YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN
Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?
Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z
Reasoning: Winning the AFC West division and holding the 1st overall draft pick are independent events with no logical necessity linking them. Division winners are typically good teams unlikely to have the 1st pick, but there is no logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
70.39%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.7200
Days to maturity:
225
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
+66.11%
PROFITABLE