Pair #15

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 15557

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6982

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1300

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Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open IS winning a Grand Slam, so KXFOMEN-26-MED YES necessarily means KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED YES. The reverse does not hold — Medvedev could win a different Grand Slam (AO, USO, Wimbledon) without winning the French Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -29.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:18Z

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