Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DTHO
Valspar Championship: Will Davis Thompson finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2652
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Thompson finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DTHO
Valspar Championship: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14350
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Thompson finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:47Z
Reasoning: A top 10 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. A top 20 finish does not imply a top 10 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A