Pair #1495

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4950

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:47Z

Reasoning: A top 10 overall finish does not require a top 10 round 1, and a top 10 round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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