Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4950
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:47Z
Reasoning: A top 10 overall finish does not require a top 10 round 1, and a top 10 round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A