Pair #1494

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nicolai Hojgaard makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:47Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not require a top 10 round 1 finish, and a top 10 round 1 finish does not guarantee making the cut. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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