Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VAC26-NHOJ
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 729510
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:47Z
Reasoning: Winning the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in round 1, and finishing top 10 in round 1 does not imply winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A