Pair #1491

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 729510

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nicolai Hojgaard wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4950

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:47Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 10 finish. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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