Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3499
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z
Reasoning: Final tournament top 5 finish and first-round top 10 are independent. A top 5 final finish does not require a top 10 first round, and a top 10 first round does not guarantee a top 5 final finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A