Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3499
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4950
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z
Reasoning: If Hojgaard finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A