Pair #1485

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15556

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z

Reasoning: If Hojgaard leads after round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 in round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue