KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-NHOJ
Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15556
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.6300
Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z
Reasoning: If Hojgaard leads after round 1, he almost certainly makes the cut (the leader after round 1 would have a score that comfortably makes the cut). However, in an extremely unusual edge case the cut line could theoretically be set in a way that even the leader misses — though in practice the tournament leader always makes the cut. Confidence is medium due to this theoretical edge case, though in reality it is near-certain.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A
Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-19T12:25:39Z