Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 340
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14398
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z
Reasoning: Final tournament finish and first-round standings are independent. A top 20 finish does not require a top 10 first round, and a top 10 first round does not guarantee a top 20 final finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A