Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4950
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14398
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z
Reasoning: If Hojgaard finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee a top 10 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A