Pair #1478

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14398

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z

Reasoning: If Hojgaard finishes top 20 in the tournament, he must have made the cut to play the final rounds. You cannot finish top 20 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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