Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14398
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NHOJ
Valspar Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.6300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nicolai Hojgaard makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:29Z
Reasoning: If Hojgaard finishes top 20 in the tournament, he must have made the cut to play the final rounds. You cannot finish top 20 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A