Pair #1471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-KBRA

Valspar Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1381

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Keegan Bradley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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