Pair #147

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBA-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNBAGAME-26MAR18DENMEM-DEN

Denver at Memphis Winner?

Series: KXNBAGAME
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-03-19T03:30:00Z
Volume: 42942

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Denver at Memphis professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: Winning one regular season game does not logically necessitate winning the Finals, and winning the Finals does not require winning any specific regular season game. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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