Pair #1469

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-KBRA

Valspar Championship: Will Keegan Bradley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3370

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Keegan Bradley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:28:07Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical relationship to winning a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -48.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -52.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue