Pair #1465

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-KBRA

Valspar Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1381

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2071417

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are entirely independent events across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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